Comparative study of Regional Urban Growth (RUG) model projections for new EU members in central Europe and the Baltic States

Abstract

Urban modelling and land-cover changes are well discussed in literature and are in a focal point of many researches. Regional urban growth (RUG) model for central Europe and the Baltic States projects land-cover changes and their volume in this region. Seven new EU member countries have experienced rapid economical and social shifts after accession and urban space is one of the areas of transformation. This paper focuses on the whole region to recognise changes and directions of urban growth in central Europe. The RUG model is based on the IPCC scenarios framework and the model projects regional changes of artificial surface and their volume in the region to the year 2025. Model is based on five gridded layer: distances to core cities, capital city and coastline, flood zones and proportion of artificial surface. The model accuracy is measured using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and area under the ROC (AUC) curves. This is an attempt to transpose into environmental sciences efficient statistical measure used commonly in medical research. Changes occur in main core cities and their neighbouring areas and the several areas of intensive growth occur. The research shows broad outlook of urban growth and can be used as a baseline for planners, policy makers and other stakeholders for sustainable development.