Predicting risk of reoffending in child sexual exploitation material offenders: the use of Child Pornography Offender Risk Tool in a Scottish population
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Date
29/07/2020Author
Savoie, Valerie
Metadata
Abstract
Background: The past decade has seen an increase in the use of communication
technology such as smartphones and social media platforms. Although this improvement in
technology might support enhancing communication, socialisation and even education, it also
increases the risk of child sexual exploitation. Not only do more children now have access to
technology to share personal information which could then be exploited, but more individuals
have access to that technology to download, produce and share children sexual exploitation
material (CSEM). It is impossible to have an accurate understanding of the prevalence of
individuals having sexual interest in children (SIIC) and accessing CSEM who have not been
caught. Research suggests that SIIC is commonly seen in the general population and does not
solely prevail in sex offender populations. There has been an increase in the past decade in
CSEM offences and convictions and organisations have been implemented to support
individuals who self-report SIIC. Although research shows that these individuals who
committed CSEM offences generally are at low risk of reoffending, certain factors do
increase that risk. Law enforcement and criminal justice professionals are required to
evaluate their level of risk to inform management, supervision and treatment in the
community. The Child Pornography Offender Risk Tool (CPORT) was created specifically
for this offender population and has been found to show significant predictive validity for any
recidivism and any sexual recidivism; but has not been validated yet in a Scottish population.
Method: Firstly, a systematic review of the literature was conducted to investigate the
prevalence of individuals who self-report SIIC and their correlates to obtain a better
understanding of the phenomenon. Secondly, the empirical research study aimed to replicate
the most recent CPORT validation study to investigate the CPORT’s predictive validity in a
sample of 144 Scottish CSEM offenders. Like the CPORT validation study, Receiver
Operating Characteristic (ROC) and logistic regression analyses were conducted to explore its predictive validity. In addition, the CPORT’s Sensitivity, Specificity, Positive Predictive
Value (PPV) and Negative Predictive Value (NPV) were added to the investigation of its
predictive validity in this study.
Results: A total of 27 studies were analysed in the systematic review and results
indicated a mean prevalence rate of SIIC between 16%-21%. Findings also suggested
correlates of SIIC such as the presence of mental health problems and adverse childhood
experiences. In the empirical research study, ROC and logistic regression analyses indicated
that the CPORT significantly predicted any recidivism (Area Under the Curve, AUC = .79),
any sexual recidivism (AUC = .79) and CSEM recidivism (AUC = .75), suggesting that it is a
valid risk assessment tool for Scottish CSEM offenders. These results were also supported by
the other indicators of predictive validity assessed in this study.
Conclusions: Overall, the findings from the systematic review suggest that selfreported SIIC in the general population is relatively common and some studies have indicated
that individuals from the general public have already accessed CSEM or would do so if they
were certain to avoid detection. However, prevalence rates did vary greatly from one study to
another, depending on the definition of SIIC and recruitment method used. Generally, the
findings indicated inconsistencies in terms of methodology and definition/diagnostic criteria
of SIIC and poor external validity. The sensitive nature of this topic likely increases the
difficulties that researchers encounter in recruiting representative samples as well as relying
on participants’ self-reported answers. The empirical study indicated that the CPORT is a
valid risk assessment tool to be used in a Scottish population of CSEM offenders. The
implications of this research suggest that the CPORT could be used with a combination of
other tools assessing dynamic and protective factors to inform relevant authorities and
support them in the supervision and management of individuals with CSEM offences. Strengths and limitations of the systematic review and the research were discussed with
implications for clinical practice and recommendations for future research.