Roundhouses in Reality: Identifying and Predicting the Distribution of Bronze Age Roundhouses on the Isle of Arran
Prehistoric hut-circles are one of the most common archaeological features in Scotland. These prehistoric remains are used by archaeologists to study settlement and domestic activity of their inhabitants. One location with significant areas of such land is the Isle of Arran, which is often called “Scotland in miniature.”. The structures have only been mapped by surface (Ordnance Survey and field walking) and aerial survey leaving the archaeological record potentially incomplete. Building on the previous survey projects, this project identifies all surviving hut-circles and records them using remote sensing—the first time this has been undertaken on Arran. On the island, evidence of hut-circles is scattered across the landscape, although surface remains are usually found in areas that have been undisturbed by agriculture or other historic land uses. It is proposed that using the complete record of hut-circles and various predictive techniques an accurate comparison can be made to determine which process has the greatest impact on contemporary site distribution. Comparisons are also made between the predictive techniques of discriminant analysis, logistic regression, and frequency ratio to determine the accuracy of each technique with archaeological data and for what context each model is best suited. Poisson points are used to calculate the accuracy of each model’s predictions, while the efficiency is calculated using Kvamme’s Gain values. The complete model aids future research and conservation by informing survey projects of Historic Environments Scotland and future Scottish settlement studies.