Energy technology phase-out: Using international analogues to inform ‘net zero’ heat decarbonisation policy

Abstract

The phasing-out of fossil fuel heating and the transition to low carbon heating is in some ways unprecedented. It is characterised by urgency, given the critical importance of the heat sector in achieving Scottish and UK statutory decarbonisation commitments, but also uncertainty, due to the significant challenges associated with possible solutions such as electrification, low carbon heat networks, biofuels and low carbon hydrogen. This report reviews international evidence of relevant historic phase-out experiences from across the energy sector; it also considers more recent relevant experiences in the transport and electricity sectors. The cases reviewed here include natural gas grids, personal transport, electricity supply, electricity metering, transport biofuels and condensing boilers. A number of cross-case insights are also drawn, on topics including the timing of phase-out policies, industrial strategy aspects and overall policy rationales.