Predictions, perception and patterns of expectancy
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Date
06/2002Author
Harrison, Richard
Metadata
Abstract
This thesis aims to explore the nature of predictions through examining the
ways in which they are employed to the frameworks of assumptions that generate
and in turn provide a context for interpretation. These frameworks, be they scientific
or even religious/spiritual in nature utilise predictions (e.g. demonstrable hypotheses
or prophecies) as a means of ascertaining knowledge and understanding about the
world. There exists a problem, however, if the status of knowledge derived from the
less logical or intuitively based predictive processes is viewed within many
mainstream scientific frameworks as being either without validity or wholly
impossible.
The reason as to why predictions are formed is generally due to a lack of
information about the state of a system under observation. The use of predictions
within our lives then is often so prevalent that we can take for granted the extent to
which we base our behaviour upon possibilities and not actualities through the
anticipation of what might be. The primary reason for this is due to the passage of
time, in that we would not be able to perceive the future (or the past) without the
construct of time. This enables us to then establish models or frameworks of events
to project into the future. The other inherent phenomenon then associated with
predictions is the formation of expectations that are generated from these models,
frameworks or even assumptions. These expectations can be formulated and
described in a variety of ways, from the very well defined mathematical descriptions
that constitute statistical information about the likelihood of a correct prediction, to
the comparatively vague impressions of feelings about the future that are
characterized as intuitions or gut feelings.