Mammoth dams, lean neighbours: assessing the bid to turn Ethiopia into East Africa's powerhouse
Date
2015Author
Cuesta-Fernández, Iván
Metadata
Abstract
This chapter sets out to discuss the main features of the undergoing Ethiopian electrification programme as well as the
key steps towards its implementation. Doing so also allows its potentialities
and pitfalls to be assessed. The analysis stems from the review of the policies
enacted by the Ethiopian authorities, the reports associated with the projects
implemented by the African Development Bank (AfDB) and the World Bank,
as well as of articles from regional newspapers. For a better understanding
of the whole proposed electrification scheme, which spans a timeframe
running from 2005 to 2023, I differentiate between three phases, each of
them predicated upon a characteristic balancing of a triad of components
– namely generation, exports and domestic access. In the first section of
this chapter I analyse the past and present stages of the scheme (2005–2011
and 2012–2017), highlighting their respective emphasis on generation and domestic access. The second section touches upon the upcoming third phase
(2018–2023), underscoring its focus on the exports component. I analyse the
probability of exports of Ethiopian electricity occurring to the three major
markets of Egypt, Kenya and South Africa, and arguably also to Yemen as
a fourth one. I posit that those markets that are more within reach in the
medium term than Egypt and South Africa are also substantially smaller and
marked by some uncertainties – namely Djibouti, the Democratic Republic
of the Congo (hereafter the DR Congo), Rwanda, Somaliland, South Sudan,
Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda. In the third section I highlight the potential
pitfalls of Ethiopia’s electrification scheme – meaning likely environmental
and financial obstacles.