Marginal abatement cost curve for Scottish agriculture

Abstract

Scotland is committed to meeting a net-zero target for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2045 (Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act 2019)). Agriculture and the land use sector can help in two ways: by changing practices to reduce GHG emissions and by storing carbon in the soil and plants. In 2018 agriculture and related land use was responsible for 23% of total Scottish emissions. The Climate Change Plan (CCP) is a key policy tool which is now being revised to help Scotland meet the new net-zero target. Policy development is informed by the Scottish ‘TIMES model’. This model pulls together emission, mitigation and mitigation cost data from all sectors to help understand the strategic choices required to decarbonise an economy.

To ensure the model uses the most recent data for agriculture, our research updated estimates of the mitigation potential and the cost-effectiveness of a selection of agricultural mitigation options. It took into account the significant recent improvements in UK agricultural GHG inventory reporting (Smart Inventory). The aim was to estimate the average mitigation potential of different measures, along with costs per unit (e.g. hectare or animal), and total maximum applicability on-farm.