Anticipation of commercial gentrification through time and space: Seoul, South Korea

Abstract

Commercial gentrification has become main discourse over the past few decades in Seoul. Although the Seoul local government have tried to handle the phenomenon by introducing policies for the gentrification occurred places, it is hard to expect that the policies alone will efficiently cope with commercial gentrification. This is because they tend to be applied to areas where its seriousness has been known by experts or the media. Therefore, in this study, a spatial simulation model was built to predict of commercial gentrification area in the future. Achieving the goal of this research, GIS, Self-Organising Map (SOM) and CA Markov model were employed. The model was able to predict the commercial gentrification places in 2025. It was revealed that peripheries of several main commercial districts are likely to suffer the gentrification. In addition, some places where are introduced regeneration project led by the local government represents a sign of the commercial gentrification. Consequently, the model could be used by local governments or decision makers to effectively prevent the commercial gentrification.