Determining the spatiotemporal pattern of COVID-19 infection rates and effects of population mobility using spatial panel data model

Abstract

This study investigates the spatial and temporal patterns of Covid-19 infection rates in England during the second wave from 9th August 2020 to 17th April 2021. The Space-Time cubes with 3D visualisations are also employed to determine the distribution and changing patterns of hot and cold spots, and spatial clustering. The primary findings are as follows: (a) the majority of cold spots patterns locate in the southern England; (b) the distribution of cold and hot spots varies greatly between rural and urban areas. Additionally, using Spatial Panel data models, we examine the relations between Covid-19 diagnostic rate and population mobility. It accordingly determines the direct effects and spatial spillovers of reduced mobility and infection rates with a better-fitting spatial autocorrelation model (SAC). This research will help inform targeted policy to be implemented for those vulnerable districts and populations in the future.