Spatial patterns of volcanic ash advisories: how the relationship between eruption characteristics, ash cloud extent and airport location drive global aviation disruption

Abstract

Volcanic ash clouds generated by explosive eruptions pose a major risk to global aviation, capable of disrupting flight operations globally. These fine particles, though not immediately life-threatening, can damage aircraft engines, reduce visibility and force widespread airspace closures. To mitigate these hazards, Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAACs) provide global monitoring and issue warnings Volcanic Ash Advisories (VAAs) based on satellite observations and dispersion models. This study aims to address the current lack of understanding regarding the spatial extent of volcanic ash clouds and their implication for global aviation disruption, by analysing VAAs issued between 2020 and 2025. Here we show that the severity of disruption is not always determined by ash duration or extent, but rather by the location of impacted airports, particularly those with high passenger throughput. The findings reveal that stratovolcanoes with andesitic compositions are the most frequent sources of high-altitude plumes, consistent with eruption databases based on ash deposits. Importantly there are other factors which affect the level of disruption such as time of year of advisory or the availability of alternative transport. By identifying regions and airspaces more frequently affected by ash, this research can inform flight planning and aviation risk management strategies, especially for vulnerable island nations and major transport hubs.