Climate change and renewable energy portfolios
dc.contributor.advisor
Harrison, Gareth
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dc.contributor.advisor
Wallace, Robin
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dc.contributor.author
Burnett, Dougal James
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dc.contributor.sponsor
Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)
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dc.contributor.sponsor
UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC)
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dc.date.accessioned
2012-08-08T13:16:40Z
dc.date.available
2012-08-08T13:16:40Z
dc.date.issued
2012-06-25
dc.description.abstract
The UK has a commitment to reduce greenhouse gases by at least 80% from 1990 levels by
2050. This will see the proportion of energy generated in the UK from renewable resources
such as wind, solar, marine and bio-fuels is increasing and likely to dominate the future
energy market over the next few decades. However, it is unclear what effect future physical
climate changes could have on the long term average energy output characteristics of
individual renewable energy technologies that may dominate the low carbon energy
technologies. It is also unclear how these changes to individual technologies will affect a
diverse portfolio of electricity generation technologies.
This thesis explores the influence of climate change on renewable electricity generation
portfolios and energy security in the UK, with the aim of determining if climate change will
affect renewable energy resource in such a way that may leave future low carbon generation
portfolios sub-optimal. The research allows long term renewable resource variability to be
reflected within models of the costs and risks associated with different electricity generation
technologies and using Mean Variance Portfolio Theory (MVPT), it explores the influence
of climate change on renewable energy portfolios and energy security in the UK.
The scope of this study has a considerable range spanning from renewable resources through
to the sensitivity of an optimal portfolio mix of generation technologies to climate change. In
brief, the objectives were as follows: Characterise the variability of renewable energy
resources and electricity generation output from renewable technology in the UK, in
particular solar PV, on and offshore wind, for future climate scenarios for the 2050s and
2080s. Characterise the variability of electricity generation costs and explore the effect of
climate change scenarios on generation costs and risk by examining the cost-risk balance of
current and potential future low carbon electricity generation technology portfolios.
The outcome saw distinctive changes in solar, wind, wave and hydro resource. The changes
were largely negative, except in the case of solar, which increased. Levelised costs decreased
for solar PV but increased for the technologies with negative resource changes. Evident
changes in optimal portfolio mixes were observed and explored.
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dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/1842/6245
dc.language.iso
en
dc.publisher
The University of Edinburgh
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dc.relation.hasversion
Burnett, D., Harrison, G. (2010). Climate change and the UK solar energy resource, Future Climate and Renewable Energy: Impacts, Risks and Adaptation, 31 May-2 June 2010, Oslo, Norway
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dc.subject
renewable energy
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dc.subject
Climate Change
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dc.subject
mean variance portfolio theory
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dc.subject
MVPT
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dc.title
Climate change and renewable energy portfolios
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dc.type
Thesis or Dissertation
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dc.type.qualificationlevel
Doctoral
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dc.type.qualificationname
PhD Doctor of Philosophy
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