Japanese national pension scheme and economic growth

Abstract

This thesis is an exercise to apply macro-economic analysis to the Japanese National Pension Scheme. Though this treats the effect of the National Pension Scheme on the national economy, the analysis is limited to its impact on national expenditure and on economic growth. Other important aspects, such as in¬ come redistribution, are not considered, though a short reference is made to the built-in stabilizing effectiveness of the pension scheme. I have concentrated on the problem of growth because of its importance in the case of the Japanese economy. I shall try to demonstrate the impact of the new National Pension Scheme on future economic growth and this requires me to examine the special features of the institutional framework of the Japanese National Pension Scheme in so far as it may affect the structure of government investment. In analysing the effect of the Scheme, some of the analytical tools of macro-economics, such as the Keynesian income determina¬ tion model, a growth model of a Harrod-Domar type, etc., are used. In analysing the effects on national expenditure only the direction of changes in expenditure produced by the Scheme are indicated. Given present information,an econometric model would not seem to be appropriate. In essence, this is an analysis of the pension scheme, yet several important traditional topics of social security are considered because they form the background to a study of pensions. Although a short statistical and historical description of the place of social services in the economy is given, historical details are not the main concern of the present thesis. Administrative details of the financing of the Scheme are not provided, although considerable space is given in the analysis to the structural framework of the Japanese pension scheme.